Episode 1478: Multisport Sabermetrics Exchange (Soccer and Rugby)
Date December 29, 2019 Summary In the fourth installment of a special, seven-episode series on the past, present, and future of advanced analysis in non-baseball sports, Ben Lindbergh talks to StatsBomb managing editor Mike L. Goodman about soccer and then professor and soccer/rugby analyst Dr. Bill Gerrard about rugby (27:20), touching on the origins of sabermetrics-style analysis in each sport, the major challenges, big breakthroughs, and overturned misconceptions, the early adopters, the cutting-edge stats and tech, the level of acceptance within the game, the effects on the spectator experience, the parallels with baseball, and more. Topics * Interview with Mike Goodman * History and difficulty with soccer analysis * Variations across soccer leagues * Comparing leagues and field types * Fenway Sports Group and Liverpool * Changes to shot selection and style of play * On-field player tracking * Establishing value for actions by players without the ball * Use of sports science and talent pipeline * Discovering more about what happens in the middle of the field * Interview with Bill Gerrard * Bill's work and relationship with Billy Beane * Bill's work on soccer analytics * Ease of analysis in rugby * Saracens rugby team * Valuing possession vs. territory * Impact on fan experience * Differences between rugby league and rugby union * On-field player tracking and use for strategy Intro Slade, "Give Us a Goal" Interstitial Jim White, "Counting Numbers in the Air" Outro The Temptations, "Ball of Confusion (That's What the World is Today)" Notes * Mike rates soccer a 2/10 for its ease of analysis. He says this is in large part because it is a low event sport (few shots, goals, etc) and because there are relatively few counting stats. * In 2012 and 2013 an expected goals model was developed for soccer, in part based on the concepts of Corsi and Fenwick from hockey (discussed in Episode 1476). * There are far more types of shots in soccer than in hockey. For example, headers and kicks are very different. * The Fenway Sports Group owns the team Liverpool and has implemented analytics at a high level. Most teams do employ an analyst but it is not a highly impactful position. * Analytics have shown that taking better shots has a greater importance than being able to finish around the goal. This year the Premier League has seen a decrease in long distance shots. * Bill had been working on soccer analytics in the early 2000s and was connected with Billy Beane by a mutual friend after reading Moneyball. Bill worked with Beane and the A's ownership group who also owned the MLS San Jose Earthquakes. * Bill rates rugby a 6 or 7 out of 10 for ease of analysis. He says that rugby is more structured and has more stoppages in play than soccer, making it easier to define certain events. * Bill highlights the rugby team Saracens as an innovator in analytics, much like the A's were in the early 2000s in baseball. * Analytics suggests that field position (territory) is more valuable than time of possession. In particular, getting the ball out of your defensive zone is important. The Saracens would win despite having the ball only 30% of the time. * Unfortunately, territory-focused play is less exciting to watch. * Analytics revealed the importance of discipline (avoiding penalties). * There is a long history of rugby players wearing trackable technology during games, however it has been primarily used for physiological study. Teams are just now starting to use this data to develop and analyze new tactical plans. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1478: Multisport Sabermetrics Exchange (Soccer and Rugby) * Stats Bomb * The Double Pivot Podcast * The Double Pivot Podcast Patreon * The Adolescence of Soccer Stats by Mike Goodman * The Frustrating Promise of Analytics: Soccer Has a Left-Handed Pitcher Problem by Mike Goodman * What Analytics Can Teach Use About the Beautiful Game by Neil Paine * The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson and David Sally * The Dual Life of Expected Goals (Part 1) by Mike Goodman * The Dual Life of Expected Goals (Part 2) by Mike Goodman * Waiting For The Revolution At Soccer Analytics Bootcamp by Nathaniel Wolf * What can Liverpool teach the Red Sox? Alex Cora went to England to find out by Jen McCaffrey * Winning With Analytics by Bill Gerrard * Meet the man who is at the forefront of data analysis in rugby by Murray Kinsella * Moving Analytics From Moneyball Into Football by Matt Stanger * Rugby Union analytics - five ways data is changing the sport by Bill Gerrard Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes